Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory lun, 13.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
415 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. TD 14W
LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST HAS ALSO PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 14W
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12 IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THEREAFTER, TD 14W WILL FOLLOW A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72 AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL VIE WITH
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO HOLD INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEVELOP A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE, MAKING
LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96. DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND
INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TD 14W WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
AFTER LANDFALL. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF TD 14W, WITH MOST NOW DEPICTING A GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN TAIWAN. THE WBAR MODEL REMAINS
THE WESTWARD OUTLIER AND THE NOGAPS MODEL DEPICTS AN UNREALISTIC
POLEWARD TRACK THAT WOULD CARRY THE STORM INTO THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT ANALYSIS AND
PROGNOSIS OF THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN INCREASING AGREEMENT OF THE
OBJECTIVE AID PACKAGE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.//
NNNN
NNNN