MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 14W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED AS IT DRAGGED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HONSHU AND EXITED INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA AND CONSISTENT WITH NUMEROUS NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/75KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE RAPID WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS NOW ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY FAXAI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN