Tropical Storm MALIKSI Advisory mer, 03.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH
OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 022232Z SSMIS PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. TS 20W IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IN AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. TS 20W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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