MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN LLCC THAT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE ZAMBALES MOUNTAINS. PAGASA RADARS IN ADDITION TO MSI LOOP GIVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 30 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE FRICTIONAL AFFECTS OF LUZON AND SPARE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. TD 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TD MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE STR, TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TD MUJIGAE TRACKS THROUGH THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AS TD 22W TRACKS THROUGH THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, AND INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, WITH ITS LOWER OHC VALUES, EXPECT SLIGHT DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE VIETNAM-CHINA BOARDER BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 22W WILL DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND TAKE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN DUE TO THE STR AXIS AND FRICTIONAL FORCES. TD MUJIGAE WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN