MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 08// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MODERATE WESTERLY VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENGULFS THE SYSTEM, INCREASING THE VWS AND PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL CAUSE TD 14W TO WEAKEN AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN