MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HAISHEN), 149 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEMS EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ELONGATED. FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO LOOSEN AND CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM. FURTHERMORE, THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND ERODE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH AN AVERAGE DIAMETER OF 15 NM, ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR TILT AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 052020Z COLOR 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINED DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF 4.5/5.0 WHICH CONTINUES TO REFLECT A WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG DUEL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT HAS BEEN FURTHER SHEARED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ALSO REMAIN WARM AT 29-30C. HOWEVER, RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO 25- 30 KTS AND OFFSETS THE WARM SSTS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST, ANCHORED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO, JAPAN. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, PASSING TO THE WEST OF KYUSHU, CROSS THE KOREA STRAIT, MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 24 JUST WEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, THEN DRAG NORTHWARD ALONG THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 75 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN RAPIDLY DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU 48 AFTER IT CROSSES NORTH KOREA INTO MANCHURIA. CONCURRENTLY, TY HAISHEN WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, TRANSFORMING TO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OVERALL IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM.// NNNN NNNN