Tropical Storm AERE Advisory mer, 05.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 9 FEET. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING AND FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO
T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY) AND A PARTIAL 051226Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING SEVERAL 25 KNOT BARBS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODEST OUTFLOW AND
MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 22 IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY TAU 36 TD 22 WILL
ENTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A COMPETING RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST OVER INDOCHINA. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AFTER TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL LIMITING DEVELOPMENT TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BY TAU
36, LARGELY DUE TO LESS THAN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BOTH STEERING RIDGES WILL EXERT SOME
INFLUENCE ON TD 22W CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE OVER INDOCHINA RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING
THIS TIME TO SUPPORT LIMITED INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE IN TRACK THEREAFTER DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
IN GENERAL ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD, BUT DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN