Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory lun, 03.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL 5-NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CORE STRUCTURE
WITH SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EYE. A 022346Z GPM
89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE
SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND A STRONGER CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
TY SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW
EXPANDING THE MOISTURE FIELD AND ENHANCING THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR 31 CELSIUS. TY
SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR TY 13W TO CONTINUE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACHING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. TY 13W WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A LESSER RATE THROUGH TAU 48 AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 13W WILL START TO WEAKEN DUE TO
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOWER SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS
TO MODERATE LEVELS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TY SOUDELOR
WILL BEGIN TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN, WHICH
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE TYPHOON DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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