Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory lun, 04.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND WEAKENED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT
ELONGATION OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 032101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEALS THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS WEAKENED, YET TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED
ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE STRONG VWS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DECREASED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A REDUCTION IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115
KNOTS AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
   B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOWING TY 11W TO
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK DESPITE IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO OFFSET COAMPS-TC AND GFDN.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND THE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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