Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory lun, 22.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC WHILE A 212350Z AND 222308Z SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THAT CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LLCC, WITH A HINT OF A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED
TO 35 KNOTS IN LIGHT OF A DVORAK INTENSITY OF 2.5 FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND BETTER OVERALL STRUCTURE. VWS IS MODERATE TO HIGH AND
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MORE DISORGANIZED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, EXPECT AN OVERALL DECAY OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS WITH COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TRACK LEADING TO GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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