Tropical Storm PEIPAH Advisory jeu, 10.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH)
WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 724 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
REMAINED BROAD WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
BUT IS STILL SHALLOW AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE 092248Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BROAD AREA OF THE LLCC AND DEPICTS
SEVERAL FRAGMENTED BANDS CURVED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES AND REFLECTS THE OVERALL
WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W
REMAINS IN A HARSH ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
CYCLONE REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO THE
RECENT QUASI-STATIONARY TYPE MOTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. BEST TRACK POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED BASED ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATING A BROAD
AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. THE UPDATED BEST TRACK POSITIONS BETTER
REFLECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS.
   B. TD PEIPAH WILL REMAIN IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE
STR. AS THE HIGH VWS PERSISTS, THE SYSTEM MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE HIGH SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CAUSE AN EARLY DISSIPATION OVER WATER. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD TRANSLATION
SPEED REMAIN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN