Tropical Storm GUCHOL Advisory mar, 19.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KYOTO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ELONGATED CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. AN
182345Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE 37GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY, RJTD RADAR
FIX, AND THE SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TY 05W HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED (25 TO 30
KNOTS). HOWEVER, THE 18/20Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION STILL DEPICTS A
STRONG WARM CORE ANOMALY. TY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 05W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 05W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS OVER
HONSHU. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 AND THERE IS HIGH TRACK CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS THE GFDN
AND UKMO MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST, DUE TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW INCREASES IN SIZE AND TRACKS
OVER JAPAN. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A FASTER RECURVATURE
SCENARIO AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH JGSM, GFS, AND ECMWF.//
NNNN
NNNN