Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory sam, 08.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND AN OLDER 080045Z SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TUTT CELL TO THE WEST IS CAUSING STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 24.  AFTERWARD, AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR,
ALLOWING TS MOLAVE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS THE TUTT
CELL REMAINS, ALLOWING ONLY MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24,
VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE,
SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 15W
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL MEMBERS
INDICATE A RE-CURVE. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INTENSITY AND THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.//
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