Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory dim, 17.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR
42//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07W DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST
OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MSI SHOWS A 20NM EYE THAT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE CLOUD-
FILLED. A 162249Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PARTIAL SHOWS THE EYE HAS SHRUNK
SLIGHTLY AND THE CURVED BANDING HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. THE
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE ABOVE WITH THE INTENSITY
HELD AT 140 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW (ALSO DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) AND LOW
VWS. STY DOLPHIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
AT THE RIDGE�??S AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 07W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTENSIFICATION, IF ANY, WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO OF A CONTROLLED DECREASE OF THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE, EXPECT CONTINUED DECAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED VWS CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
DECREASING SSTS. STY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY DOLPHIN WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND CONTINUE TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF COLD DRY AIR, IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED FACTORS
MENTIONED ABOVE, STY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-
FORCE COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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