Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory jeu, 07.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
SEMI-EXPOSED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED WESTWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE OFFSET CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM
GAINS VERTICAL DEPTH, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH ASSUMES STEERING.
IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES IN-PHASE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION,
REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING
95 KNOTS BY THE END OF FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES GUAM. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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