Tropical Storm BOLAVEN Advisory mer, 22.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND EXTENSIVE FEEDER BANDS TRAILING TO THE SOUTH. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 212238Z 37 GHZ SSMI-S COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE EAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ANTICYCLONE IS CAUSING VERY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. TY 16W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STR AND
STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON BOLAVEN WILL REMAIN ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
TRACK BUT WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 96 AS THE
STEERING STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND
WBAR THAT DEFLECT THE VORTEX TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE DURING THE
INITIAL 36 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND WBAR. AFTER
THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST.   //
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