Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory mer, 09.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE TRACK FOR TY 08W CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD, LEADING TO A SHIFT IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
STEERING THE SYSTEM. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TY 08W HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN
THE RECENT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. THE POSITIONING OF TY 08W HAS
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT RECENTLY AS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS
OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POSITIONING FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUPPORT THE MSI POSITIONING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF THE DVORAK FIXES FROM THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AGENCIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAVE
DECREASED BELOW FAVORABLE CRITERIA FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ARE
SUPPORTING THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN MSI.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING TOWARDS KYUSHU OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING AROUND 21Z ON THE 9TH. THIS IS
IN PART DUE TO THE RECENT SPEED INCREASE OBSERVED IN MSI. AN
INCREASED WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS SSTS DECREASE, VWS CONTINUES
TO INCREASE, AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS IMPACTED AS TY 08W APPROACHES
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN JAPAN. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ACROSS KYUSHU AT MINIMAL TYPHOON, POSSIBLY STRONG TROPICAL STORM,
STRENGTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN TRACK
SPEED AND CONTINUE TO DEVOLVE AS THE ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS JAPAN,
ALONG WITH THE WESTERLIES, BEGINS TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-EAST UNDER
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRA-
TROPICAL SOME TIME BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN