Tropical Storm MAWAR Advisory lun, 04.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH MULTIPLE
RAINBANDS STREAMING OFF FROM THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A SERIES OF
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGES (032127Z AND 032327Z) CONTINUE TO DETAIL THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION CONTAINED AROUND THE EYE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
ASYMMETRY SEEMS TO HAVE AIDED IN THE EYE-WOBBLE MOTION THAT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90-115 KNOTS
FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW. TY 04W INTENSIFIED AS EXPECTED DURING
THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM BUT QUICKLY LEVELED OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE BRIEF CONVECTIVE FLARE VORTICITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED AND THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 100
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING ITS SELF INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING
FOR WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (05-10 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC. A
SHARP GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 KNOTS AND GREATER) VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXISTS NORTH OF 25N,
WHERE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE OVERALL PATTERN NORTH OF TY 04W AS ZONAL BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW STILL REMAINS INTACT VIA THE CONNECTION WITH THE
WESTERLIES. TY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING STR FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
INCREASED VWS MENTIONED EARLIER, AS WELL AS DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) RANGING FROM 26-24 DEGREES CELSIUS. DURING TAUS
36-72, TY MAWAR WILL STEER INTO THE MID-LATITUDES ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND FURTHER WEAKEN DUE
TO CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY VWS AND EVEN COOLER SST. A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ASIA, WILL TRACK OUT OVER
JAPAN AND AID IN THE EVENTUAL BAROCLINIC ABSORPTION OF TY 04W AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) DURING TAU 48 AND COMPLETE IT BY
TAU 72. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE,
THIS FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CPA TO KADENA AB
IS CURRENTLY 113 NM AT 042200Z.//
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