Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory ven, 08.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1178
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT
APPEARED TO HAVE BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 072222Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 07W IS WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
      B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO ASSUME STEERING
AND EVENTUALLY REDIRECT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO OPEN. THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, SHOULD SUPPORT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 90 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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