Tropical Storm HAISHEN Advisory dim, 05.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE WRAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS NOW BECOME FULLY EXPOSED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE TS 05W TO
REMAIN IN A SLOW OR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, WITH DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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