Tropical Storm HAISHEN Advisory ven, 03.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM
EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 022238Z AND 022245Z SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED
LLCC WITH 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TD 05W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING NER. IT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL
REDUCE SPEED AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAU 36 DUE TO A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NER REORIENTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A DEEP LAYERED SUB TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BETWEEN THE
RIDGES WILL PROVIDE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE NER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. AS TD
05W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH INCREASES THE VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
FURTHER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER VWS, LEADING
TO ITS DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT IN TRACK. DUE TO THESE FACTORS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN