Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory mar, 31.03.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED AN OVERALL DEEP AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED BANDING INTO A SHARPLY OUTLINED 15-NM EYE, WHICH
PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE EYE FEATURE IS
ALSO READILY APPARENT ON A 302351Z 37V GPM COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, TY 04W SHOULD
TRACK TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT).
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR AND ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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