Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory sam, 08.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
STRUCTURE AS TY SOUDELOR RE-MERGES INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AS WELL AS COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL
WEATHER BUREAU WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 13W IS LOCATED AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY SOUDELOR WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 06
TO 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, TY
13W WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT MAKES A
FINAL LANDFALL IN CHINA AT TAU 12. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
INLAND, IT WILL ERODE RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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