Tropical Storm NANGKA Advisory dim, 12.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE EVEN AS
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 112202Z F19
91H IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30
KNOT) VWS OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BREAK
IN THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
IN, DEFLECTING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE JAPANESE ISLAND
OF SHIKOKU. THE VIGOROUS OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS
RESULTING IN GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS PEAKING
AT 105 KNOTS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SHIKOKU PRIOR TO TAU 120. INCREASING VWS, IN ADDITION TO LAND
INTERACTION, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT DIRECTIONALLY, HOWEVER, THERE IS A DISTINCT DISCREPANCY IN
THE TRACK SPEEDS, LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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