Tropical Storm FITOW Advisory mar, 01.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DEVELOPING EYE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TS 22W HAS MEANDERED A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY HAVE
ACCOMPANIED THIS DEVIATION IN TRACK. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND TRACK SPEEDS
ARE SLOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST, TOWARD THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD DECREASE AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT BEGINS TO DECREASE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 48 AND
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, CARRYING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND DIVERGES
THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SECOND STEERING RIDGE.
INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN THIS PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
AFTER TAU 72, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE YELLOW SEA. THE
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NAVGEM DETERMINISTIC
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODELS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
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