Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory ven, 04.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
171 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
032331Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES PERSISTENT BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDING, A 032333Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH NUMEROUS 30-KNOT WIND VECTORS AND WEAKER
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THEREFORE,
THE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON MSI AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IS BOLSTERED BY THE ASCAT IMAGE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY A WEAK TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 23N 163E. TD 23W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
 3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO TURN ONTO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UKMO
AND JENS INDICATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN VICE A
RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO BASED ON AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 72. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS.
   C.  IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 23W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD
OKINAWA AND SOUTH KOREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMO AND JENS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND IS CENTERED AROUND OKINAWA WITH
A RE-CURVE TOWARD SOUTH KOREA OR NORTHWEST KYUSHU; HOWEVER, THE
SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS (MINUS UKMO AND JENS) IS LARGE AT 185 NM,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TD
23W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 85 KNOTS DUE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTER TAU 96, TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 120, NEAR WESTERN HONSHU.//
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