Tropical Storm SON-TINH Advisory ven, 26.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES CONTINUED IMPROVING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 252240 SSMIS 91 GHZ
AND A 252249Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL OVERALL
IMPROVING STORM STRUCTURE CONSISTENT WITH A STRENGTHENING STORM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVING STORM STRUCTURE AND CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS WHICH BEING ENHANCED BY THE WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST. TS 24W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. TS 24W IS NOW FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AT A HIGHER RATE DUE TO
OVERALL IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST.
   B. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TS 24W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS
BY TAU 36 AND MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT ENTERS THE
GULF OF TONKIN DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TS 24W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU
48 AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SLOWS AND ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WELL UNDERSTOOD ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN
NNNN