Tropical Storm TWENTYSEVEN Advisory sam, 19.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED SHALLOW CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND
FROM DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING THE
WEAK CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK
THROUGHOUT ITS SHORT LIFESPAN. THE STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, WILL INDUBITABLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING TO BELOW THE 25-KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD
BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY MUCH SOONER. THE LIMITED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FRAGILE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.   //
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