Tropical Storm GONI Advisory sam, 15.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. MSI ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
RECENT GRADUAL TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION. A 150003Z
METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS SUGGEST A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A CORRESPONDING IMPROVEMENT IN
OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 150003Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TS
16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STR. THE STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH BASED ON RECENT UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN TIGHTER AGREEMENT
WITH A 70-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE
TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, GUIDANCE FANS OUT SLIGHTLY
BUT REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (RI) AFTER TAU 36 AND SHOULD REACH
A AN INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 16W WILL TRACK ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE DOMINANT STR. BEYOND TAU 96,
DEGRADED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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