Tropical Storm GONI Advisory lun, 17.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF
ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 7-
NM PINHOLE EYE. A 152222Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL EYEWALL
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TY GONI IS
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING APPROXIMATELY 60
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 16/00Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM THE
KNES T5.5 (102 KNOTS) ESTIMATE AT 16/2030Z TO THE PGTW T6.5 (127
KNOTS) ESTIMATE AT 16/2330Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE
TWO ESTIMATES; THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED FURTHER AT
THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE. TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS, WARM SST AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE FANS OUT WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK SPEEDS AND THE TIMING OF THE
POLEWARD TURN. CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EXTREMELY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SITUATION AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA, WEAKENING THE STR NORTH OF TY 16W.
ADDITIONALLY, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF
HONSHU UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, TY 16W IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND EXHIBIT SLOW AND POSSIBLY EVEN QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION NEAR TAIWAN. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF 16W IN THE
WEST SEA. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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