Tropical Storm TALIM Advisory mar, 19.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
AS SHOWN IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THIS DISPLACEMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG, NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TS 06W HAS
INCREASED IN TRANSLATION SPEED ALONG THE EXTENSION OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS SOUTH OF OKINAWA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY BUT WILL OVERALL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE LIFESPAN OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, WHICH IS
SLOWER AND ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN KYUSHU, INTO
THE STRONG WESTERLY JET. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT REACHES KYUSHU. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. NOGAPS IS
CURRENTLY THE ONLY MODEL TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE LLCC.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 06W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY
EASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK.//
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