Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory dim, 29.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TY 20W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55
KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A 10-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM PADDLE ISLAND ALSO INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WITH A PRONOUNCED
TROCHOIDAL TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH HAD WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), IS
FILLING AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA AS EXPECTED.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE STR IS RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND TY 20W
IS NOW ACCELERATING WESTWARD AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
105 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
   B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A 85 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TY 20W IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GOOD POLEWARD VENTING THROUGH TAU 12 AND IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, POLEWARD
VENTING WILL WEAKEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL STR BUILDS INTO EASTERN CHINA.
TY 20W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 12 THEN, AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 30, WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR
TAU 48. BASED ON THE IMPROVED, TIGHT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC
MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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