Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory jeu, 19.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191704Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS WITH EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE
BANDING IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0
TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 191138Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TD 27W IS LACKING AN
ORGANIZED OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HOWEVER, IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A TUTT CELL. THUS THE LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED
BY THE TUTT CELL. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W.
   B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR THROUGH TAU 24, PEAKING AT 35 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 24, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE RESULT OF THE SYSTEM?S PROXIMITY TO TY 25W. AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT INTERACTS WITH
TYPHOON 25W, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS FOR
THE TRACK DIRECTION, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION CAUSES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN