Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory mar, 22.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 023//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 180NM TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
EXPOSED, RAGGED LLC IN MSI IMAGERY. A 212203Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO DEFORM UNDER A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (60 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COAST OF JAPAN REPORT 30-40 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 70 NM FROM THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 212147Z SATCON OF 43 KTS AND THE
OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS EXTRATROPICAL BASED ON A
212100Z AMSU CORE TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SHOWING A LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL ANOMALY AND A COLD CORE ALOFT, AS WELL AS THE ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD, DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE DRY SLOT IN THE CIMSS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
UNFAVORABLE AT 24-26 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND CONVECTION SHEARED
POLEWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALL CHARACTERISTIC OF
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS. TS 21W IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE STRONG
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF TOKYO AND THEN EAST OF HONSHU MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE
WINDS. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE EXACT POSITION IN
THE NEAR TERM, AS THE SYSTEM DEFORMS UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
JET. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD OF THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE GALWEM SOLUTION AND CARRYING FORWARD THE
CURRENT OBSERVED TRACK SPEED, AS CONSENSUS IS BEING DRAGGED SLOWER
BY GFS, WHICH PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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