MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160020Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15- 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTENT AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD MINDANAO. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH 274 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN