Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory jeu, 20.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
PHILIPPINES. THE INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS A
RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 94 KNOTS
FROM CIMSS. TY 25W HAS EMERGED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL
TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. SLOW WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. TY 25W WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING
ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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