Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory dim, 02.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE FEATURE. A 022206Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND INTO A CONVECTIVE CORE. A
012332Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH HAS BEEN USED TO ADJUST THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST WIND RADII. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ASCAT
BULLSEYE WHILE BEING SUPPORTED BY A PGUM RADAR FIX AND SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 56 KNOTS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AIDED
BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) FROM 30 TO 31 CELSIUS,
AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TS SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR TS 13W TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, THE NAVY MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL SPREAD IS 185
NM AT TAU 72. BASED ON THE OVERALL STABILITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WILL
DECREASE DUE TO REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
VWS TO MODERATE LEVELS. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR
TAU 72 AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
TS 13W NEARS TAIWAN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TS SOUDELOR TO OFFSET SOME OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE EFFECTS. MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE
HAS A SPREAD OF ONLY 105 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND, DUE TO THE CONTINUED
AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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